A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
